← Chronos Mortal Ambition Store Champtionship
Water GenbuTier 1
at Chronos Mortal Ambition Store Champtionship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.9%
avg ELO +5.5 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1438
· median 1438
· range 1438–1438
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1050
Q1 1204
Q3 1401
1438
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 25.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 25.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.3% | +18.5 |
| Water Fractal | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Genbu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
